[MS Techdays 2009] Summary “How IT will change in the next 10 years and why should you care ?” Miha Kralj
I added some personal interpretations!
Past successes can be your worst enemy!
IBM? cash cow, the mainframe, was replaced in a few decennia by new kids on the block forcing IBM going from hero to zero. Are IBM employee? really stupid people? I don? think so Šthey just didn? correctly anticipate the changing markets. So they were replaced by Microsoft, Oracle and Compact.
Not only IBM had a hard time to survive. In 1997 there were about 24 major system vendors: IBM, Nec, Olivetti, Tandem, Siemens ŠThis list was reduces to about 10 in 2004. In 2008 about 6 were left: HP, Dell, IBM, Fujitsu, Sun and Nec.
The connected world
The environment we work and live in has dramatically changed as well. Think about the fact that in most cases we are 5 up to 6 seconds away from any connected network be it a PC, phone, mobile phone ?/p>
Young graduates that just started working never experienced a world without technology. They are what we call Digital Natives. The digital world is the world as they know it and grew up in. On the other hand you have the Digital Immigrant. The once that experienced the introduction of the digital age and changes during their lifetime: the first PC, the first mobile phone ?/p>
Both groups, Digital Natives and Digital Immigrants, are using technology in a different way. Digital Immigrants like to know how stuff works and are very loyal to brands. Digital Natives have no brand attachment and don? care how thing work. It just should work, whether there is complex technology under the hood or not!
The three-screen-era is about to end: TV screen, computer monitor and mobile device. People want multi-purpose devices. Also different user experiences are finding their way to the consumer market. System accessing more than just sight and hearing senses but also focusing on touch, gestures, motion, ?/p>
New Business Models
Servers are sold per container now! It this case literally a container delivered in your server room that just needs to be hooked up with a power cable, a network cable and a cooling line. You don? even get the key to open it!
Originally developed for disaster situations these containers found their way into normal operations. The idea behind this is, if nobody mingles with the servers inside there is a better change for optimal operations. Human error is more likely to cause havoc. They don? even sent over an engineer if 80% of the servers is up and running.
Changing business models often require a change in mindset as well. For example if you see a car as service that takes you from A to B, the brand of car becomes irrelevant. If you?e about to chose your new leasing car, everybody would disagree. On the other hand if you?e taking a taxi, you will never object to the brand. Then the car is just a means of transportation.
Sometimes in IT we still want to decide on car? brand while that might not be important. The Digital Natives would say: as long as it works, it? fine. In the older business models servers are looked upon as assets. In the container model they are just services bought from a vendor. The difference lays in the financing of both models. As assets huge pre-financing is required. As service we only have monthly bills to pay.
Servers became a commodity what is payed for on a monthly basis. Servers just work ?utomagically?i.e. automatically and transparent.
Cloud computing is going even further then the container model in outsourcing the hosting power completely. To force is into the new mindset, we must ask ourselves is hosting applications our core business?
The evolution from a consumer-provider based Web 1.0 model to the Web 2.0 model where everybody is consumer and provider at the same time has changed the way we say the internet.
Interesting reading material: The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
What is needed for Web 2.0 to really take off, according to Kralj:
- The virtualization must become even more realistic: so user interfaces with better look and feel.
- Privacy and trust must be augmented: you?l leave a long digital trail if you buy something on the internet.
- Intelligent search: If I? in Paris and looking for the Hilton Hotel, I don? want to see any search result about Ms. Paris Hilton escapades.
- Meritocracy: merits can be earned anywhere, even in the digital world! If someone can lead a digital gang of 50 people in some on-line game and can gain respect of the gang in doing so, there should be no reasons why it can? be part of his resume and be reasons for hiring this guy as a project leader.
Globalization impacts everybody
Where is the world? largest English speaking community located? The correct answer is in China! So the next time you come up with a marketing strategy you might think twice.
Interesting reading material: The World is Flat by Thomas L. Friedman.
This changing world forces us to look ahead:
- Tomorrow think about the next technology wave!
- Next week review how these trends will affect your business!
- Next month explore what your job will be the next 10 years!